Our aims: 

This CCAP set of activities aims to develop a set of basic adaptation scenarios and strategies as a strategic tool to be used by policy-makers in regional cities, including sustainability-driven retreat, highly-built defences, and riding-out the storm, with each scenario containing technological, economic, demographic, cultural, and security strands; for energy and built-infrastructure, quantitative analysis of adaptive paths will be developed in order to:

1. Identify robust urban adaptation strategies
2. Develop strategies with other cities in a common analytical framework (possibly new software decision tool focused on urban managers, which are currently non-existent), and 
3. Ascertain opportunities for co-ordination, sharing, collaboration, and possible initiatives with counterpart cities.

Our desired outcomes:

Year 1: Urban infrastructure climate change adaptation scenarios workshop convened

Year 2: Urban adaptive pathway workshop conducted

Supporting projects:

Scenarios on CCA & Community Adaptation
This project focuses on the use of scenario thinking to help communities consider the implications of climate change for their localities and the adaptation actions required. A small group of diverse representatives of the community are invited to participate in a 2 day workshop to develop ‘scenarios’ – stories of the different possible futures they may face as of a result of the many uncertainties and complex issues facing their community, including climate change. The scenarios are then analysed to identify the implications for the community. A range of possible actions to address the implications are also identified. These actions include those that can be taken to maximize success and minimize harm in each possible future. The scenarios are a powerful tool to aid the community in their discussions about what to do in response to the threat of climate change. This scenario workshop process will be undertaken in a range of communities and their responses compared. A scenario workshop was held with the community in the Hamilton region in February 2008. Further workshops are planned. For more information contact: Dr. Jodi-Anne Smith or Dr. Martin Mulligan.

Scenarios on CC & Security
This project involves research into reframing Australia-Indonesia security. It is a Nautilus Institute@RMIT project in collaboration with Indonesian partner organisations through shared work on global problems: in particular climate change and energy insecurity. This includes the influence of climate change concerns on nuclear energy planning in the two countries, and the possible misperceptions deriving from both current nuclear planning and past nuclear proliferation attempts. As a part of the project scenarios exploring these implications will be generated in a workshop with representatives from relevant agencies and organisations in both countries. For more information see the ‘Reframing Australia – Indonesia Security’ website or contact Professor Richard Tanter.

Scenarios Quantitative Tool Development
This project is exploring the viability of using Agent Based Modelling and Geographic Information Systems to explore solutions to different climate change adaptation issues at the local and global level. If successful the model developed would be used to explore the different emergent outcomes (expected and unexpected) from taking certain actions to a situation. It is proposed that such a model could be used to generate data for participants to use in related scenario workshops. The resulting findings would assist policy makers in considering their options and developing effective action plans. For more information see the project website or contact: Professor Peter Hayes.